Exobiology's Roulette

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Pablo Edronkin

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It is a statistical fact that as the number of iterations of any probable event increase, odds tend to become something more like certainty than anything else; so, in an universe that were really infinite there would be no odds but certain things, and assuming that ours is just that, then in order to expand our knowledge and understanding about it we should start to assume that some things, like the probability of life outside Earth, should be considered as a fact.

And we should begin to thing more in terms of 'when' we will run across it instead of 'if' we would ever do so. Trying to contact some sort of intelligent, extraterrestrial life is an effort that is currently taking place: the SETI program, sponsored by prestigious research and scientific associations and institutions from around the world is an on-going project that tries precisely to talk with anybody out there, assuming that there in fact is someone else.

In a similar way, the odds of winning a luck game like the roulette increase proportionally to the extension of certainty among probabilities in each iteration of the game, inside the total sampling universe. This is a bit arcane, but it equals to say that that you should worry to try to increase the odds of winning on each repetition, more than trying to increase the actual amounts that you would like to receive 'if' you win.

Don't be short-sighted, concentrate in the long term picture and don't pay much attention to specific events. Always keep in mind how much you can afford to risk or lose, and don't overstep those numbers. If one night you don't win and you reach your threshold, simply quit for that evening and wait for another day.

If you act rationally, you will win, and in a big way; this is as certain as the fact that we still have a lot to explore in our universe. Biology is, at any rate, a game of statistics and odds. We still are unable for technological reasons to explore deep space and other worlds as much as we would liket to; however, exploration continues. There is a whole science called exobiology that is currently studying not only the factibility but also the probable evolutionary paths that life could take in other worlds.

Sooner or later like it happened in the case of planets outside the solar systems that were thought as probable, but no one saw any evidence until technology and science evolved sufficiently to gather it, we will see what is going on with true extraterrestrial life.



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